Investing in luxury watches is as much about passion as it is about financial sense. Sam, co-founder of Kettle Club has a distinctive approach to buying timepieces, he treats them as stores of value rather than quick flip investments. In this editorial we explore which watches Sam would put his money into and why based on his philosophy and current market trends. (This is our opinion and a guide based on Sam’s approach, not formal financial advice.)
Sam’s Approach to Watch “Investing”
Sam’s philosophy is straightforward, buy what you love but if you are looking at this from a financial perspective ensure it’s a model known to hold value. Coming from a finance background, Sam admits that cash in his pocket tends to “burn a hole”, so he prefers parking money in sought after watches that he can enjoy wearing and comfortably hold for 5-6+ years without worrying about depreciation. This long term horizon helps smooth out short term market swings. He isn’t trying to “flip” watches overnight, instead he’s picking pieces he genuinely likes which historically have a safe resale value or even moderate appreciation over time. In Sam’s view a watch bought today is likely to be worth the same or more half a decade later, especially if you choose the right models… and in the meantime, you get to enjoy a beautiful timepiece. What are those right models? Sam tends to gravitate toward popular stainless steel sports watches from top Swiss brands, the kind of iconic references that have more buyers than there are watches available. These include modern Rolex sports models (think Daytona, GMT-Master II, Submariner), as well as legendary pieces from Audemars Piguet (the Royal Oak) and Patek Philippe (particularly the Nautilus). Such watches have proven track records for retaining value thanks to limited supply, strong collector demand and brand prestige. As we’ll see industry data backs up Sam’s instincts: limited editions and flagship models from Rolex, AP and Patek have shown high value retention even as other watches fluctuate in price. Before diving into specific picks, it’s worth noting that Sam always emphasises buying watches as a hobbyist first. The investment angle is a bonus outcome. In other words, he isn’t buying random stocks, he’s buying tangible, wearable art from brands whose heritage and quality he trusts. This passion driven strategy naturally steers him toward the blue chip models of the watch world.
Rolex: Sports Models with Strong Demand
Examples of Rolex sports watches and their price growth over six years. Popular models like the Submariner “Hulk” (left) and Daytona (center) saw their secondary-market prices rise by ~45–50% from 2019 to 2025, while the GMT-Master II “Pepsi” (right) also appreciated significantly. When it comes to value retention, Rolex is king, a sentiment Sam wholeheartedly agrees with. He focuses on steel Rolex sports models which have a near mythical status among collectors for their resilience in the market. The logic is simple: Rolex makes a lot of watches, but sports models like the Submariner, Daytona and GMT-Master II are produced in relatively limited numbers compared to global demand. This imbalance keeps prices buoyant on the secondary market.
- Rolex Daytona (Stainless Steel), Sam’s top pick. The Daytona chronograph has an iconic legacy and perennial waitlists. Stainless steel versions often sell well above their retail list price due to scarcity. In fact all Daytona references “perform very well financially” and during the 2020–2022 surge some skyrocketed in value. Even after a price correction post-2022, Daytonas remain sought after and current prices are considered a relative bargain for buyers entering the market now. The Daytona’s track record is such that many collectors view it as a “stable investment” piece. Sam likes it because he can enjoy a legendary watch while knowing that years down the line it’s likely still worth what he paid (or more). As evidence, a rose gold Daytona 116515LN gained about 50% in value over six years (2019–2025). Steel Daytonas, with their lower entry price and higher demand, have similarly strong appreciation potential, historically, steel models and rare vintage pieces have shown excellent value increases, making the Daytona a magnet for watch investors.
- Rolex GMT-Master II, Particularly the “Pepsi” bezel model (ref. 126710BLRO) is on Sam’s radar. This red-and-blue GMT is an absolute classic for travelers and has a huge fan following. Introduced in stainless steel in 2018 (bringing back the beloved Pepsi colorway on steel), it quickly commanded hefty premiums over retail. Over a 6-year span, the GMT “Pepsi” has indeed appreciated, one analysis noted roughly a 26% rise in value from 2019 to 2025 for this model. While not as dramatic as the Daytona’s spike, that steady climb reinforces Sam’s belief that popular GMTs are safe harbors for value. The Pepsi’s appeal is timeless and Rolex may discontinue or tweak it in the future, which could further boost collectible value. Even now, amid a cooler market, the GMT-Master II remains a sought-after piece among collectors, exemplifying how a functional tool watch can double as an appreciating asset.
- Rolex Submariner, The Submariner is another model Sam would consider, especially special variants or staple references. He caveats “to a degree” because not every Submariner is a guaranteed win, the specific reference and configuration matter. For example, the now-discontinued Submariner 116610LV “Hulk” (green dial/bezel) became highly collectible; it saw about +45% value increase in six years, partly due to its discontinuation in 2020 and iconic design. In contrast, a much pricier white-gold Submariner like the ref. 126619LB (blue bezel) comes with different economics: its retail price is extremely high (over $48k in 2025) and on the secondary market it actually trades below retail (around $32.5k as of August 2025). That’s roughly a 32% drop from new for the white-gold Sub, reflecting how precious metal versions often depreciate more initially. Sam notes these nuances, he prefers the stainless steel Subs (e.g. classic Date or No-Date Submariners) which have broader demand and a lower price point, making their value more “liquid” and stable. Indeed, steel Subs are relatively easy to resell and have steadily risen in price long-term (while showing only moderate volatility).
The key is that core Rolex sports models like the Submariner are so recognized that there’s always a buyer at the right price. Sam feels confident that buying a Sub today and wearing it for years won’t hurt his wallet when it’s time to sell, the Submariner’s timeless appeal and continued popularity see to that.
Why Rolex? In Sam’s opinion Rolex sports watches tick all the boxes, global brand prestige, active collector communities, limited supply relative to demand and a history of price increases (both by the brand and in resale). Even industry data supports this view, Rolex is consistently named the leader in resale performance, with demand far outpacing supply for most stainless-steel models. It’s telling that the global luxury watch market views Rolex as a bellwether; across the board, Rolex models are known for “robust value retention” and often act as the entry point for people treating watches as investments. Sam also believes now is an interesting time to buy (more on that later), as Rolex prices have stabilised at lower levels after the 2022 spike. He’s effectively shopping the dip on icons that likely won’t be getting any cheaper.
Audemars Piguet: The Royal Oak’s Allure
Outside of Rolex, Sam’s eyes light up when discussing Audemars Piguet’s Royal Oak. The Royal Oak is a flagship model that changed the industry in 1972 as a luxury steel sports watch and in recent years it’s become a hype-driven collectible. Sam is cautious here, prices for certain Royal Oaks soared to unsustainable highs during the recent market bubble, but he still sees strong long-term value in specific references like the Royal Oak 15400 and 15500 (the 41mm stainless steel automatic models). These were the modern iterations of the classic Royal Oak design and both have now been discontinued (the 15400 ended in 2019, replaced by 15500 which itself was succeeded by a new ref. 15510). Discontinuation often creates a supply squeeze in the collector market, which can prop up prices for years.
Value appreciation of select Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet models over six years (2019–2025). The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15500ST in stainless steel (right) rose about +81% in market price, reflecting how sought-after discontinued modern sports watches can be. Patek Philippe’s Nautilus (left) and even dressy Calatrava (center) also show notable gains. The Royal Oak’s popularity means even relatively recent models can perform like investments. For example, the Royal Oak 15500ST (steel, time-only) was introduced in 2019 at around €22,000; by 2025, its price on the secondary market hit roughly €40,000, an ~81% increase in six years. That surge was driven by the Royal Oak craze (fueled by social media and limited supply) and the fact that the 15500ST had a short production run. Royal Oak 15400ST, its predecessor from 2012-2018, also appreciated significantly and remains in demand for collectors who want the classic 41mm Royal Oak without paying current model prices. Sam likes these references because they represent the entry point into the Royal Oak world, iconic design, steel case/bracelet (which tends to hold value better than gold) and comparatively “reasonable” prices (at least versus ultra-rare Royal Oak variants or the jumbo 15202). However, Sam is aware of the volatility: the Royal Oak market experienced a big spike through early 2022 and then a correction. Prices for many Royal Oaks (especially the blue-dial “Jumbo” 15202 or Openworked models) dropped from their peak highs. But much like Rolex, the new baseline is still higher than five years ago. By mid-2023, for instance, the Royal Oak indices had stabilized well above pre-2020 levels. Sam’s strategy with AP is to buy after the hype has cooled. Now that prices have come off their peak, a solid Royal Oak bought today and held should resume modest appreciation as the brand continues to thrive. Importantly, Audemars Piguet tightly controls Royal Oak production and demand from wealthy collectors (especially in Asia and the Middle East) remains strong. In the luxury watch market overall, AP’s Royal Oak is repeatedly cited as a model with “heritage brand” value and high desirability. All this gives Sam confidence that a Royal Oak in the safe will be a good store of value, if not a source of long-term profit. In summary, Audemars Piguet’s Royal Oak represents the kind of modern grail watch that, in Sam’s opinion, is worth the outlay for a serious collector. You get an iconic Genta design and top-tier watchmaking and historically if you held a steel Royal Oak for 5+ years, you’ve likely seen notable appreciation on top of enjoying a very exclusive watch. Sam’s picks: the 15400ST and 15500ST in stainless steel, clean, no-fuss Royal Oaks that any collector recognizes and wants. Their track record (as shown by that ~80% jump since 2019) speaks to why they’re considered “investment-worthy” pieces in today’s market.
Patek Philippe: Nautilus 5712 and the Value of Patience
No discussion of watch investments is complete without Patek Philippe, and Sam is no stranger to this holy trinity brand. Patek’s sport models, particularly the Nautilus, have become legendary for skyrocketing in value due to extremely limited supply. Sam’s approach, however, is measured. He’s not chasing the hottest new release at inflated prices; instead, he looks for a sensible entry point into a prized model. His example: the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712 in stainless steel. Why the 5712? This Nautilus variant (which features a moonphase, date and power reserve subdials on its blue dial) is slightly less famous than the uber-hyped Nautilus 5711, but it shares the same coveted design DNA. The 5712/1A was introduced in 2006 and has had a long production run. Sam specifically mentions looking at 2012–2015 production pieces for the 5712 in steel. The rationale is that older examples can be acquired at a “better price point” than late-model ones, without being affected by the surge in brand-new retail prices or recent hype dips. In other words, if you buy a 5-10 year old Nautilus 5712, you’re paying a secondary-market price that has already corrected from any peaks and you’re not paying the premium of a unworn piece fresh from Patek. It’s a more conservative entry into Nautilus ownership that still gives you the upside if the model continues to rise over time. And indeed, the Nautilus 5712 has shown tremendous long-term gains. Looking at market data: In 2012, a steel 5712 was around £19,000; by early 2018 about £22,000, fairly modest growth. Then the sport-watch craze hit: by Jan 2022, the 5712 spiked to around £90,000, even peaking over £128k during the height of the frenzy. After the bubble burst in 2022, prices fell a lot, now (mid-2025) it trades around £70,000. That is still roughly a 65% appreciation over five years, outperforming even broader Patek market indexes. The takeaway for Sam: anyone who bought a 5712 five+ years ago is still well in the green, despite the rollercoaster. This reinforces his belief that time horizon is everything, Patek Nautilus owners who are patient have been rewarded handsomely, whereas those who chased the peak in 2022 got burned in the short term. Sam’s choice of a 2012-2015 Nautilus 5712 is essentially trying to buy near the “bottom” of the post-hype dip. Around those production years, the prices are somewhat stabilized and not carrying the new-model premium. Also, by 2012 the Nautilus was still pricey but not yet the speculative asset it became by 2021. In essence, Sam is applying a value-investor mindset: buy an excellent asset when it’s out of the limelight. He notes that new retail prices on Patek sport models have climbed and can create a dip in older models’ relative value, a savvy buyer can capitalize on that. Moreover, being an “entry-level” Nautilus (in the sense that it’s easier to obtain than a brand-new one from an AD), the 5712 steel is a gateway for many collectors, ensuring persistent demand in the secondary market. Patek Philippe’s reputation for exclusivity and craftsmanship underpins all this, as a brand, it’s often said you never actually own a Patek, you merely look after it for the next generation. That sentiment hints at value retention; people trust Patek to endure. Even industry forecasts highlight that Patek Philippe is a favorite among collectors, offering heirloom quality watches that are often appreciated. Sam’s pick, the Nautilus 5712, certainly fits that bill. It’s worth noting Patek’s other models can be investment-worthy too. For example, Patek’s Nautilus 5711 in precious metal showed an astronomical +122% increase (the rose gold 5711R from 2019 to 2025) and even a vintage Calatrava ref. 2526 gained ~38% in that period (being a historically important model), see the image above. Sam isn’t specifically targeting those, but he recognises that limited or significant Pateks tend to do well over time. The 5712 in steel is simply his sweet spot for combining relative affordability (in the context of Patek) with strong upside. In summary, Sam would invest in a Patek Nautilus 5712 for the long haul, confident that in 5-7 years it will at least hold its value, if not appreciate further as Nautilus models become ever more scarce. Plus, he gets to enjoy one of the most beautiful luxury sports watches in the world in the meantime, not a bad perk for a “value retainer” asset.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy? Sam’s Market Outlook
A pressing question for anyone considering watch investments today: Is it a good time to buy a Rolex (or AP, or Patek) right now? Sam’s answer is an emphatic “Yes” and not just because he’s in the business of selling them. He genuinely observes that prices for many sought after models are at a low, stable point and have been for about a year. The wild spikes we saw during the COVID era boom are gone, but so are the drastic declines, the market has found its floor. For instance, across the board, prices have corrected from their 2022 peaks by some percentage (Rolex sports models dropped perhaps 20–30% from all-time highs, on average). But those prices are now holding steady and even ticking up gradually. We won’t likely ever return to pre-2020 “bargain” prices on models like Daytona or Nautilus, too many new collectors entered the market in the last few years and brands have increased retail prices as well, but the exuberance has cooled to rational levels. Sam compares it to a bubble that popped: “We’re not going to get pre-COVID prices again, nor those crazy COVID spike prices, but from here it’s a reasonable upward trajectory,” he suggests. In his view, the next 5–7 years will bring gradual price increases for the heavy-hitter models. This aligns with wider market research: the global luxury watch market is projected to grow steadily (~5.84% CAGR) through 2030, indicating strong underlying demand and a healthy industry outlook. Luxury watches continue to hold cultural and economic significance and many buyers (especially younger ones) now see them as investment assets or alternatives to traditional investments. It’s also notable that pre owned luxury watches are gaining popularity as a segment. This trend benefits dealers like Kettle Club and by extension collectors like Sam, because it means liquidity in the market. A vibrant secondary market ensures that when Sam wants to cash out of a piece, there are platforms and buyers ready. In fact Rolex recently even expanded its Certified Pre Owned program to include newer models, a move which signals that the brand acknowledges the importance of the resale market. A more robust and transparent secondary market generally supports stable or rising prices for desirable references. That said, Sam always cautions that watches aren’t a risk-free investment. External factors can shake things up. For example geopolitical or trade events can impact prices, a recent headline saw U.S. import tariffs on Swiss watches causing a notable dip in a major retailer’s stock. In August 2025 a new 39% tariff on Swiss imports was imposed in the U.S. leading Watches of Switzerland to drop ~7% in share price overnight. Swiss watch exports to the U.S. also momentarily dipped in response. This illustrates that macroeconomic policies and currency fluctuations can create short term volatility even in the luxury watch sector. However such shocks tend to be temporary in Sam’s experience, the fundamental desire for Rolexes, Pateks, APs, etc., doesn’t vanish because of a tariff or a recession, serious collectors simply adjust their strategies. In fact periods of uncertainty often separate the speculators from the true enthusiasts, potentially making the market healthier. Sam’s long term, hold oriented approach is essentially built to weather these storms. By the time he’s thinking of selling (years down the line), the effects of a one time tariff or a brief economic slump are usually blunted.
Sam believes now is an opportune moment to buy quality watches if you have the capital and the passion. The market has done its correcting and is on solid ground. Many coveted models are the cheapest they’ve been in recent memory (relative to their recent peak) and yet the long run growth story remains intact. The overall luxury watch market is growing, new high net worth individuals are emerging globally who want these timepieces and brands are maintaining their exclusivity. For someone like Sam and indeed for Kettle Club’s clientele this environment is ideal to pick up “investment grade” watches at fair prices. Just remember, the goal isn’t quick profit but steady appreciation and value preservation, with the joy of ownership along the way. As Sam frames it, buying a Rolex now is like buying into a 7-year plan, don’t expect doubling your money in a year, but do expect that in a half decade or so, you’ll likely be glad you bought when you did.
Final Thoughts
Sam’s approach to watch investing is a blend of passion, prudence and patience. He puts money into watches he truly admires, iconic sports models from Rolex, AP, Patek, with the confidence that these pieces will hold or gain value as the years go by. It’s an opinionated strategy, shaped by experience and supported by market data, but of course not a guarantee. The key takeaways from Sam’s strategy: stick to renowned models with proven demand, think long-term (5+ years horizon) and buy at sensible prices (ideally when the hype cools). By doing so, one can assemble a collection that is both enjoyable and financially resilient. Above all, Sam and the Kettle Club team stress that this is a guide and personal perspective. Every collector should do their homework, ensure authenticity, condition and fair pricing when purchasing. Watches can be a rewarding alternative asset, but they should first and foremost bring you joy. If values go up over time, that’s the icing on the cake. In our view, Sam’s picks, steel Rolex sports, AP Royal Oaks and Patek Nautilus 5712, exemplify the kind of watches that have historically done well as investments while being phenomenal pieces to own. It’s hard to argue with a strategy that lets you wear a grail watch today and potentially profit from it years later. That’s the magic of this hobby: steel and gold tickers on your wrist that might just beat inflation and give the stock market a run for its money, all while looking downright cool. And if you’re considering taking a page from Sam’s book, remember that Kettle Club’s collection features many of these models, curated with exactly this blend of enthusiasm and asset-savvy mindset. Happy collecting! Sources:
- Le Nouveau Réveil, “Rolex Submariner Date 126619LB: Price, performance and market evolution” (Mila Lazri, Aug 3, 2025)
- Chrono24, “From 0 to 60: The Rolex Daytona” (Market overview, 2023)
- Debonar Watches, “Which Are The Best Watches for Investment in 2025?” (Bruna M. Guaccio, Mar 17, 2025)
- WatchCharts, Market Price Analysis (retrieved Aug 2025)
- Mordor Intelligence via openPR, “Luxury Watch Market to Grow at 5.84% CAGR Through 2030” (Press release, Jul 31, 2025)
- Investing.com, “Watches of Switzerland down 7% as Trump tariffs threaten U.S. sales” (Navamya Acharya, Aug 1, 2025)
Citations
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Which Are The Best Watches for Investment in 2025? – Debonar Watches
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Luxury Watch Market to Grow at 5.84% CAGR Through 2030 – OpenPR
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Rolex Submariner Date 126619LB: Price, Performance and Market Evolution – Le Nouveau Réveil
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The Safest Watch Brands for Long-Term Investment in 2025 – Investment Watches
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Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1A Stainless Steel Price – WatchCharts
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Watches of Switzerland Down 7% as Trump Tariffs Threaten U.S. Sales – Investing.com
Box & Papers
